Angle
Engineers and quants love this. Concrete performance attribution.
Key Points
- Better exits affect expectancy in three ways: win rate, average win, average loss
- How OCO losses become TU wins (small improvement in exit timing)
- How wins exceed 3R caps (letting winners run with protection)
- Why the industry under-invests in exit research
Outline
- **Expectancy equation:** (Win% × Avg Win) − (Loss% × Avg Loss)
- **Axis 1: Win rate** — better exits turn small losses into small wins
- **Axis 2: Average win** — dynamic targets capture more than 3R
- **Axis 3: Average loss** — adaptive stops don't widen, they tighten
- **Combined effect:** the equity curve difference over 100 trades
- **The industry gap:** why exits get 10% of the research attention
Repurpose Plan
- **LinkedIn:** Chart/graphic showing expectancy improvement
- **Newsletter:** Math-heavy version for quant-minded readers